Epistemology & Logic

Every Model You Use Is Wrong. Some Are Still Useful.

Confusing a simplified model of reality for reality itself is one of the most common — and most avoidable — reasoning failures.

Hanlon's Razor: Most Slights Were Never Aimed at You

The meeting you weren't invited to has two explanations that fit equally well. Preferring the boring one isn't generosity — it's what happens when you count how much each explanation assumes.

Occam's Razor: Why Assumptions Are Expensive

The colleague who ignored your email is probably not conspiring against you. The principle behind that judgement is arithmetic, not optimism — and it is misquoted more than almost any other rule of thought.

Reasoning by Analogy Is Fast. Reasoning by First Principles Is Rare.

Most decisions copy what worked before. The decisions that change an industry usually start by refusing to.

Sometimes the Fastest Way Forward Is to Ask What Would Guarantee Failure

Instead of asking how to succeed, ask what would definitely ruin the outcome — then spend your effort avoiding exactly that.