Metcalfe's Law: Why Second Place Is So Much Worse Than Second
Ten times the users gives roughly a hundred times the possible connections. The exact formula overstates things — the underlying point about compounding leads does not.
Ten times the users gives roughly a hundred times the possible connections. The exact formula overstates things — the underlying point about compounding leads does not.
Profitable companies spend years building things and then hand them out for free. There's a clean piece of economics behind it — and it tells you where you sit in someone else's plan.
Retailers won't join without shoppers; shoppers won't come without retailers. Both are right to wait — and how you break that deadlock defines every marketplace business ever built.
Two shops on one street do everything right; one closes. Quality and effort are what you need to compete at all — a moat is what stops a rival matching you even when they genuinely try.
A newspaper needed presses and trucks to control its market. An aggregator controls a bigger one with neither — because the internet moved the choke point from distribution to attention.
A lone fax machine was a paperweight. The machines never improved — the network did. That distinction separates genuine network effects from the many businesses that merely have a lot of customers.
Species that have survived for ten million years go extinct at about the same rate as new ones. That surprising fact explains why your improvements so often buy you nothing.
None of these companies owns most of what it sells. They own the place people begin — and that turned out to be the most valuable position in the economy.
The interesting number in AI is not what a model can do. It is what a unit of machine reasoning costs — because when that falls tenfold, whole categories of product become possible.
The graveyard is full of competent products people opened once. Downloads measure marketing; the second visit measures whether anything was actually solved.
How the money arrives is the least interesting part. Every model has a lever for growing revenue and a cost attached to pulling it — and where that cost falls predicts behaviour under pressure.
Early networks showed you what your contacts posted, in order. A modern feed is a ranked selection made on your behalf — and what it optimises for explains most of the arguments about it.
A century of competition law detects monopoly by watching consumer prices. When the service is free, the test finds nothing — and the power sits somewhere it was never designed to look.
The market is usually described by its size, which leads to the wrong conclusion. Its shape matters more — and a product built for high willingness to pay does not become an India product by discounting it.