The Thucydides Trap: When Rising and Established Powers Meet
A rising power wants influence matching its strength; an established one sees each concession as erosion. Both are sincere, neither needs to want conflict, and the pressure builds anyway.
Topic
Military Strategy
Geopolitics: Leaders Change, Coastlines Don't
Most commentary is about which leader decided what. Constraints — geography, resources, neighbours, demographics — explain the menu of realistic options, and they outlast every government.