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Geopolitics

Semiconductors: Everything Depends on a Handful of Buildings

July 25, 2026·9 min read

Chip design is spread across hundreds of firms. Making the advanced ones happens in very few places — and that single asymmetry explains the shortages, the politics, and the fragility.

The Prisoner's Dilemma: When Two Rational People Both Lose

July 24, 2026·10 min read

Betraying your partner is the correct choice no matter what they do. So both of you betray, and both of you serve five years instead of one. No error was made — and that is exactly the problem.

The Thucydides Trap: When Rising and Established Powers Meet

July 24, 2026·8 min read

A rising power wants influence matching its strength; an established one sees each concession as erosion. Both are sincere, neither needs to want conflict, and the pressure builds anyway.

Geopolitics: Leaders Change, Coastlines Don't

July 24, 2026·8 min read

Most commentary is about which leader decided what. Constraints — geography, resources, neighbours, demographics — explain the menu of realistic options, and they outlast every government.