Just-In-Time: The Buffer Was Hiding Something
Cutting inventory frees a lot of cash. The original reason for cutting it was different — stock conceals late suppliers and broken machines, and removing it forces them into view.
Concept
Black Swan Events
The Central Limit Theorem: Why Bell Curves Are Everywhere
One die is flat. Ten dice added together make a bell curve. The shape is a property of adding independent things — which tells you exactly when to expect it and when not to.
The Fermi Paradox: A Very Large, Very Quiet Universe
Billions of stars, billions of years, and enough time for anyone to have crossed the galaxy several times over. We see nothing — and every explanation for that says something significant.
The Law of Large Numbers: Small Samples Are Wild
Seven heads in ten flips is unremarkable; seventy thousand in a hundred thousand would be extraordinary. The same probability, different room for chance — with consequences most people miss.
Supply Chain and Logistics: The Ocean Is Cheap, the Doorstep Is Not
Crossing an ocean can cost less per item than the final eight kilometres. Once you see logistics as handling events rather than distance covered, most of the field makes sense.
Antifragility: The Things That Get Better When You Drop Them
We label parcels 'fragile' but have no word for the opposite — not strong, which survives shocks unchanged, but something that improves because of them. Your muscles are the everyday example.
Black Swan Events: The Model Was Never the Problem
Every observed swan was white until Australia. No amount of confirming evidence establishes a universal rule — and the most confident moment is often the one just before the record breaks.
The Map Is Not the Territory: Every Model Earns Its Keep by Lying
A map showing everything would be the size of the city and useless. Models work by discarding detail — the error is forgetting which detail, and when you left the range where it didn't matter.
Power Laws: When the Average Describes Nobody
The world's tallest person barely moves a room's average height. The world's wealthiest moves it by a factor of millions. Almost all statistical intuition is built for the first case.
Margin of Safety: Building for the Estimate Being Wrong
A bridge expecting ten tonnes is built to hold fifty. The extra capacity will likely never be used — and it is not there for unusual lorries. It is there because the calculations might be wrong.