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Antifragility

Antifragility: The Things That Get Better When You Drop Them

July 25, 2026·10 min read

We label parcels 'fragile' but have no word for the opposite — not strong, which survives shocks unchanged, but something that improves because of them. Your muscles are the everyday example.

Black Swan Events: The Model Was Never the Problem

July 24, 2026·9 min read

Every observed swan was white until Australia. No amount of confirming evidence establishes a universal rule — and the most confident moment is often the one just before the record breaks.

Hormesis: The Dose Decides Whether It Helps

July 24, 2026·8 min read

Lifting weights tears muscle, and the tearing is the point. A small dose of something harmful can trigger a repair response that leaves you stronger — but only under two specific conditions.

Margin of Safety: Building for the Estimate Being Wrong

July 24, 2026·9 min read

A bridge expecting ten tonnes is built to hold fifty. The extra capacity will likely never be used — and it is not there for unusual lorries. It is there because the calculations might be wrong.